• April 9, 2025

Upside Down CAPM and Home Prices

In the functional world of the century-long flat Case-Shiller chart, families spent a stable portion of their incomes on rent and home prices reflected a stable premium on rents. Rents on exi...

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• April 9, 2025

Chart of the Week - Potential Sources and Scenarios of Upside Risk

Well… I had planned to put this note out earlier in the week but was too busy —and as you probably saw, one of these upside risks has already in-part played out with markets responding in spe...

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• April 9, 2025

From Flush to FOMO: USD/JPY, GBP/USD and Silver Reboot After Trump Shock

Trump’s tariff U-turn sparks huge risk rally. USD/JPY stuck in a volatile range with bearish bias. GBP/USD tight but watch for breakout setups. Silver...

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• April 9, 2025

Nasdaq Forecast: QQQ Swings as China Strikes Back

US Futures Dow futures 0.30% at 37760 S&P futures 0.8% at 5022 Nasdaq futures 1.3% at 17341 In Europe ...

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• April 9, 2025

Trump Pauses Tariffs for 90 Days, Markets Skyrocket

The Dow Jones soared more than 2,500 points, while the Nasdaq soared 1,500 points and the S&P 500 rose 400 points. U.S. markets recovered...

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• April 9, 2025

Tariff Pauses Might Lift Stocks, but Bonds Are Pricing in Pain

It took a few days and a near-bond market meltdown to break Trump, but he finally broke. As I noted yesterday, it was starting to look ugly out there, and by night, the bond market rollercoas...

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• April 9, 2025

S&P 500 Faces Major Test as Trade War and Tariffs Fuel Market Wobble

After Trump’s new tariffs, markets are on edge—again. But with the S&P 500 testing critical support, a rebound might still be possible. Meanwhile, gold shines as ...

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• April 9, 2025

Fed Faces Tough Choice: Tackle Inflation or Support Growth Amid Trade War

Is inflation or slower growth, and perhaps recession, the priority? This basic question hangs over the Federal Reserve as it grapples with deciding how to respon...

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• April 9, 2025

The Most Critical Takeaway From Manic Monday

For those of you with bearish nightmares, we share one important takeaway from Monday’s market roller coaster. While there is a good chance the market may explore new lows over the coming mon...

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• April 9, 2025

Stocks Suffer as Trump’s Increased Tariffs Take Effect

Reciprocal tariffs kick in, risk sentiment takes another hit China faces 104% tariff, its response is awaited US equities remain under severe pressure, dollar suf...

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