US trade fell, but markets shrugged off the decline, with the Nasdaq 100 bouncing back to pre-Liberation Day levels. Each week, we take you through the last seven days in seven charts.
1. A Negative Print for US GDP Growth in Q1
US GDP shrank 0.3% in Q1 2025, falling short of expectations of a 0.3% increase, and marking the first quarterly contraction since Q2 2022.
The GDP was negative for just two reasons:
- Trade, driven by a surge in imports ahead of anticipated tariffs, subtracted 4.83 percentage points from GDP
- The government sector deducted 0.25% from GDP, marking its first negative contribution since 2022
Consumer spending
—which accounts for roughly two-thirds of GDP—grew at a modest 1.8% rate, the slowest pace since mid-2023, contributing just 1.2 percentage points to first-quarter GDP.
2. A New Historical Low for US Trade Balance in March
According to the US Census Bureau, the US trade balance which consists of exports minus imports hit an all-time low of -$161.99B in March. Exports saw only a modest rise of $2.2B, totalling $180.8B for the month. On the flip side, there was a sharp increase in imports, which climbed $16.3B to a record $342.7B, driven by a 27.5% increase in consumer goods.
3. A Lot of Noise for Nothing?
If you looked away for a moment in April, you’d never have guessed the world briefly flirted with what felt like an existential crisis—rumours of the end of US exceptionalism and more. Yet, almost unbelievably, the
Nasdaq 100
has fully clawed back its post–Liberation Day losses. April was a whiplash-inducing month for traders: a 16% peak-to-trough plunge in the first week, followed by a stunning ~18% rally in the weeks that followed.
4. Only European Investors Dumped US Stocks
The rest of the world— including China— is buying…
5. Central Banks Are Big Buyers of Gold
In 2024, Poland’s central bank emerged as the largest official purchaser of
gold
, a strategic move that adds to the list of things the country seems to be getting right.
6. Is This One of the Most Important Charts to Consider?
As Tavi Costa notes, the rise of AI alone could generate an electricity demand equivalent to adding an entire US-sized economy within the next five years. One aspect that may not be getting enough attention is the widening energy consumption gap between the US and China. If the trend toward onshoring accelerates, the US could face a comparable spike in power needs. The sectors likely to benefit? Metals, mining, and infrastructure stand out as prime candidates.
7. The Iberian Peninsula… Wiped Off the Map of Lights
On Monday, a major power outage swept across Spain, Portugal, and parts of southwest France, disrupting life in major cities such as Madrid, Barcelona, and Lisbon.
The blackout affected homes, offices, public transport, traffic systems—and even halted play at the Madrid Open tennis tournament—plunging millions into disarray. Governments and grid operators in Spain and Portugal scrambled to identify the cause and restore power.
