• January 7, 2025

Sentiment Peaks: Are Major Market Reversals on the Horizon?

We get the impression that some major sentiment extremes are close. In particular, we appear to be at/near peak optimism about the US stock market and the US dollar , peak pessimism ab...

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• January 7, 2025

US Maintains Growth Momentum With Warning Signs of Inflation

Markets have been re-pricing the prospect of Federal Reserve rate cuts this year in the wake of more hawkish Fed commentary. Today's data suggests that the economy is maintaining its strong momen...

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• January 7, 2025

Services Industries Continue to Carry the US Economy

The Services PMI for December came in at 54.1, easily beating street expectations of 53.5. The results were two points higher over Novembers data and the sixth straight month of expans...

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• January 7, 2025

Fed’s Cook Discusses 'Elevated' Valuations and Moving 'Cautiously' on Rates

Federal Reserve board member Lisa Cook discussed the year ahead at a conference this week. Cook discussed monetary policy and stock market valuations, among other topics. Sh...

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• January 7, 2025

Gold: Is the Yellow Metal Ready for Another Wave?

We did it, folks; we shorted the US Dollar Index right at its top – congratulations. As the situation in the USD Index is playing out as I described it previously, I’m quo...

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• January 7, 2025

Gold Stocks: Could They Surge to All-Time Highs?

Most bank analysts are projecting a modest upside for gold this year. Some are a bit more bullish (but not much) because of no meaningful cut in the US government’s gargantuan debt. ...

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• January 7, 2025

The Energy Report: Hemispheric Blowback

Remember President George W. Bush’s “Hemispheric Energy” Dream? The Dream is not dead! Not only is President Trump going to make American Energy great again, but apparently the resignation of Can...

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• January 7, 2025

US Q4 GDP Growth Still on Track to Slow After Strong Q3 Rise

US economic activity looks set to post softer growth in the government’s upcoming fourth-quarter GDP report. Based on the median nowcast from several sources, output appears set to dow...

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• January 7, 2025

US Dollar Falls on Reports About Trump Softening Tariff Plans

Washington Post says Trump could scale back tariff plans. Dollar drops; stays pressured even after Trump’s denial. Nasdaq and S&P 500 gain, driven by tech stocks. ...

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• January 6, 2025

Timing the Tipping Point for Stocks With the Fed Rate Cut Cycle

After a long pause since the final rate hike this cycle in July 2023, the Federal Reserve initiated its easing cycle with a first-rate cut in September 2024. The only other time in rec...

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